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Monday, 27 June 2016

EU Referendum- What it means


The EU Referendum in the UK was a closely fought battle between "remain" and "leave". Leave got 51.9% of the vote with remain getting 48.1%.

This was closely followed by the resignation of the Prime Minister and significant market volatility. With the pound hitting a 31 year low in the morning after and decreasing further in following days.

There was a cross party coalition on both sides of the debate, and the reasons for people voting either way varied substantial. Topics of debate have included

- Immigration and Jobs
- Cost of membership
- Funding for other things, namely the NHS.
- Democracy
- EU regulations
- Sovereignty
- Increasing Collaboration in Euro Zone.

Immigration 
This has been one of the most controversial topics of the debate. However leaving the EU offers no guarantees of controls over immigration and this was highlighted by the leave group soon after the results were announced. The intention appears to be that we continue as a member of the European Economic Area after leaving the European Union. This would most likely mean allowing movement of people as well as goods, at least within Europe.

The latest (Oct-Nov 2015) published figure is 5.2% unemployed. In the UK, the young have found it difficult to find work. In Europe the average for 2014 was 21% youth unemployment with the UK being 16%.

The economic impact of EU migration has been studied and showed a benefit to the UK economy of over £20billion. This increased economic activity is likely to require additional jobs. The cultural benefits of being able to live, work and travel easily to a huge range of countries is easily understood but hard to quantify.

Post Election, Boris made a statement saying people would be allowed to stay were they are now. Though a single statement is unlikely to be enforceable it will be welcomed by many. He also said there is no rush to formally leave. Post election some have also highlighted that there might not be any change to migration

In summary, the economic benefits of EU immigration to the UK are over £20bn per year. The cultural benefits are significant and leaving the EU may not have any impact on immigration in practice.

Cost of membership
The cost of membership was claimed by the leave campaign as £350 million while others claimed after rebates it was £160 million. A full cost benefit analysis would only be possible if there was agreement on the benefits.

On day one of the outcome being announced the leave camp announced that this was probably exagerated and have now removed all previous pledges from their website within days.